OUR CORNERSTONE

THE 39 YEAR LEAGUE-WIDE 81% STATISTIC

Once upon a time, there was parity in the NFL. Draft Order, scheduling and the Salary Cap helped provide a level playing field and contributed to the household phrase “any given team can win on any given Sunday”. Following the realignment in 2002, which created eight Divisions of four teams each, there were no longer any fifth place teams and hence no longer any fifth place schedules. In fact, beginning in 2002, only two of a team’s 16 regular season games are determined by the prior year’s record. As proof of the disappearance of parity, consider the 16-0 2007 Patriots, and the 0-16 2008 Lions.

There is however another form of parity, which is alive and well and that is parity against the spread. Over the past 39 years (1985-2023) the percentage of teams with a full season record against the spread falling within two games of .500 is .808. The lowest single season percentage during this time frame was .700 in 1998. (See Table for complete details.) Even the undefeated 2007 Patriots(10-6 ATS) and the winless 2008 Lions(7-9 ATS) had spread records within 2 games of .500.

The GREEN MACHINE mechanically applies a process developed to exploit the unwavering parity of performance against the spread by all teams over the past 38 years.

Our belief that parity against the spread will continue is based upon more than just 38 consecutive years of league-wide past performance. It is also based upon the fact that if the worst team of all time and the best team of all time, and all others in between, have a relatively equal chance of covering on any given Sunday, this represents a great advantage to “The House”. Since “The House” has absolute control of the line, it will adjust its lines, as necessary, to continue to enjoy this advantage.

In an effort to capitalize on this league-wide 39 year pattern of parity against the spread, we have analyzed every regular season NFL game over the past 39 years (nearly 10,000 games), employing exactly the same method to identify and select only those games where we believe an advantage exists. Consequently, there will be weeks where there are no selections or only one game selected.

The GREEN MACHINE has an overall 58% winning percentage of over the past 7 years

To review our results in detail, click here.