2021 SEASON WRAP UP
Another season in the books for me and this one is documented with date and time stamped tweets of all the Green Machine selections. I would like to thank everyone who followed along and watched the green machine do its thing and especially those of you that helped me bring it to the public. It wasn’t our best year, but it is important to keep the results in proper perspective. I promised at the beginning of the year that I would not bitch and moan over bad calls, dropped passes, bone-headed penalties, missed kicks and the like and I will stick to my word. Nevertheless, we should consider
This was the first 18 week, 17 game season in NFL history. Clearly virgin territory and no data to feed the machine to navigate those final weeks
Covid ran rampant through the league, causing games to be played on Tuesdays and teams having to use players signed that week (quarterbacks even).
Point spreads moved considerably during the week as players hit the Covid list.
These factors made handicapping extra challenging. Fortunately for us, we have a machine that doesn’t really care about any of these things, because they are all accounted for in the point spread. Of course, betting early in the week was very risky as the lines were subject to major moves.
So, we did live up to our name---as the plays we released, if followed strictly for the entire season, would allow our followers to WIN ON PRO FOOTBALL. However, we did not reach our lofty goal of 60% winners, as we had the last 4 years. The Final record through 16 weeks was 27-23 (.540) in games and 38-34 (.527) if you weighted the plays as suggested. So, now it is time to shine the light on the season and try to understand why the results were not better.
Before that, let me re-emphasize the loftiness of our 60% goal and that failure to reach that mark should not be considered failure. This goal was not arbitrary or far fetched, but rather the benchmark we met or exceeded each of the past four years and our five year winning percentage is still 60% or better both weighted and unweighted. If you invested money in the stock market and ended up with a gain, you would not consider that to be a failure because you did not make more. In other words, a victory is a victory. How many of you honestly won more than 54% of the games you picked yourself this year? More importantly, how did we fare in comparison to other “expert” handicappers?
At the beginning of the season, I provided a link to VegasInsider.com and asked you to compare my record with their expert handicappers. I told you that my record the past 4 years met or equaled their top performers each year, but alas I had no proof for those years. But I do have proof of how the system performed this year. Our meager 54% winning percentage on games was exceeded by only 8 of the Vegas Insider “expert handicappers” this year. If we were to include the week 17 picks, which I released but did not advocate betting because I had no week 17 track record, the record would have been 31-24 (.563) and exceeded by only 4 of the Vegas Insider “expert handicappers”. Most likely, we will play week 17 next year, but for now let’s confine ourselves to the picks that were actual plays in 2021 and the .540 winning percentage. So, 8 guys had a better year, but are they consistent? Can you count on them to do it again next year or the year after? Let’s take a look at their track records. Of these 8 “experts”, 1 had no prior history, 1 had a 53% winning percentage in 2020 (the minimum needed to come out ahead after standard vig) and the other 6 were at 52% or below in 2020 ( 3 were below 50%). So these guys are likely flashes in the pan.
Let’s look at it a different way. In 2020, only 2 expert handicappers at Vegas Insider had a winning percentage better than our documented 54% in 2021 (only 1 was better than the .563 if week 17 were included). Of those 2, one was 60% in 2020, but dropped to 50% in 2021. The other was 56% in 2020 and matched our 54% in 2021. Bottom line is that none of the “experts” put together two consecutive seasons which were both better than our worst season.
Enough perspective. It’s hard to get excited about 54%.
So why did we have an off year? Our cornerstone stat performed as expected. For the 37th consecutive year, over 70% of all teams ended the season within 2 games of .500 against the spread. Two unusual things happened that contributed to our record. These are not excuses, but an explanation. For the first time, the unweighted results outperformed the weighted results. This may lead to an offseason re-evaluation and possible revision of the weighting process, but not the selection process. We also had a horrible record in close games. For the season, there were 8 games that we played in which the final score came within 3 points of the spread, meaning that a single field goal would have swung the result. We were 1-7 in those games. Had we gone 4-4 in those games, our unweighted record would have been 30-20 (.600) instead of 27-23 (.540). So we were awfully close to reaching our goal of repeating prior years’ successes. We also got off to a terrible start, which may have scared away many of you before we reversed field, got hot and ended up ahead and maybe you did not get to enjoy the end result. So hopefully, 2021 will be a lesson to stay the course and allow yourself to WIN ON PRO FOOTBALL.
I will end with an analogy to my favorite team, the Miami Dolphins, which tells you that I am a glutton for punishment. The Dolphins, like us, got off to a miserable start, but somewhere in the middle of the season, they got hot, went on a winning streak and ended up above .500. They had the best record of any team for the final 9 weeks of the season, so what does the owner do? He fires the coach. What a fool. Don’t make the same mistake. Stick with us.
Looking forward to next year.
-Jimi Green-