2022 Season Wrap Up

So our 2022 season is over and once again, profitable.  Realistically, we are not going to break the bank with a 26-23 record, but it beats losing, as most of your friends that don’t follow our system can attest.

For the 38th consecutive year, our cornerstone stat, around which the Green Machine was constructed performed at over 70%.  Through 16 games (which is all there was for the first 36 years) we hit right on the 37 year average of 81%, although only 72% through 17 games.  Could the 17 game season be the cause of our modest return this year?  Probably not.  The statistic still performed above 70% and did not reduce the overall average below 81%.  Although the Green Machine is designed to capitalize on the cornerstone stat, there is no direct correlation, otherwise we would be covering 81% on average every year.

Here is a breakdown of our results by teams. 

We played a total of 49 plays and used 17 of the 32 teams at least once.  We played on the Saints more often than any other team: 9 times and went 4-5 on them.  The only other team we used more than 4 times was the Jaguars and we went 3-2 on them.  Our best performers this season were Carolina, who we went 3-1 with and Baltimore, who we went 2-0 with.  No other teams provided us with more than a one game positive win/loss differential.

Here is a breakdown of our results by pointspread.  We went 3-5 on Favorites, 6-6 when getting zero to 3 points, 10-7 getting 3.5 to 7 points, 1-2 getting 7.5 to 9.5 points and 6-3 getting double digits.  I think the most interesting thing here is that we only had 3 underdogs out of 49 plays with a spread of more than a TD and less than double digits.

Here is a breakdown of our results by closeness of game.  22 of 49 games were decided by less than a touchdown (7 points) against the spread. This means that one play could have changed the result of being an ATS win or loss.  We went 12-10 in those games.  The remaining 27 games were not within one play of a different result, and we went 14-13 in those games.

So, that is it for the year.  We don’t do playoffs.  All I can say about the playoffs is there are a limited number of games, so don’t get yourself into a hole you can’t get out of.  Don’t bet more per game just because it is the playoffs or because there are less games.  These games are harder to win for 2 reasons—all the teams are at least good and you don’t have any input from the Green Machine.  Keep in mind the cliché that defense wins championships—there is a reason that saying keeps getting repeated over time.  It’s easy to fall in love with a high powered offense, but not always justified.

See you next year, when we will once again WIN ON PRO FOOTBALL