What the Hell is going on?

I have not written a blog since the season began and what a strange year it has been so far. 

I’m sure to you newcomers, the optics were not good—we went 0-2 and dropped 4 units in Week 2 after sitting on the sideline during Week 1.  Crickets.  No reassurances from yours truly and worst of all no picks in Week 3.  And no picks in Week 4.  No blogs either.  Then along comes a loaded Sunday in Week 5………4 games with 7 units in play.  Both of the double unit games (Eagles and Lions) were not looking good late in the fourth quarter and even the Broncos were goal to go on a potential tying TD as time expired.  But fortunately, we got the breaks this week in the form of a Viking 49 yard FG attempt being short and the Eagles blocking a punt, late in those games.  Going 3-0 in the early games and picking up 5 units was exactly what we needed to right the ship and put us back on course.  A Chiefs victory on Sunday night would have been the cherry on top, but it was not to be. 

So, for the week, we were 3-1 in games and 5-2 in units.  I would be thrilled to repeat this feat every week (and you should be too).

How convenient of me to find the time to write a blog after a good week, huh?  Hey, that’s fair.  I get it, but truth is I didn’t think that me saying “don’t worry that we’re sitting in a 0-4 hole and we have no picks to try to dig ourselves out” was going to instill a great deal of confidence.  Talk is cheap.  Results are what counts.  That’s the whole point of our website-- to show our results, so you don’t have to take my word for anything.  So I shut up and let the Machine do the talking.

Notice I said we were fortunate to get the breaks this week.  I’m not pounding my chest and claiming to be a genius that these games ended as they did.  They could easily have gone another way.  But they didn’t.  It is that simple. It’s empirical.  The final score is the final score, no matter how you got there.  It’s also just as simple and just as empirical when it goes against you.  And so, you won’t hear me bemoan questionable calls by the refs and coaches on close losses, because they are a part of the game and you sure as hell don’t give up your winnings when those things go your way. 

In Week 2, we were not so fortunate.  Atlanta gave up 20 points in the fourth quarter and Detroit got outscored by 21 in the second half.  Yeah, it’s frustrating, but a loss is a loss is a loss.  There are no moral victories in knowing that “we played em tough for three quarters”,  “the ref cost us that one” or “if not for that one fluke play”.  This is what I call the “Loser’s Lament” and you won’t hear that from me, because bad calls and fluke plays are part of the game and every fan knows that going in—so if you can’t accept that, don’t bet.   And if you do bet, accept it as part of the game. 

Funny thing is that the Green Machine games tend to get more than their fair share of the breaks or at least it has seemed that way the past couple of years.  I imagine that this is because we are often on the opposite side of the public that loves to play favorites.

Back to the optics and what to expect going forward. 

Despite how it may look from the outside, the double units in Week 2 were in no way an attempt to compensate for having no Week 1 picks and the absence of picks in Weeks 3 and 4 were in no way related to the losses in Week 2.

The reason that there were no picks in weeks 1,3,4 is because when we plugged the weekly schedule and lines into the green machine, the answer was no plays this week. 

The reason that there were 2 double unit picks in week 2  is because when we plugged the weekly schedule and lines into the green machine, the answer was 2 double unit plays this week. 

The reason that there were 3 double unit picks and one single unit pick in week 5 is because when we plugged the weekly schedule and lines into the green machine, the answer was 3 double unit plays and one single unit play this week. 

Hopefully, you are  noticing a pattern.  The picks are what they are.  I can’t suppress them, I can’t create them---I just feed the schedule and lines into the machine I built and share the results with you.  My Green Machine has been right 62% of the time for the last 4 years.

Let me tell you what to expect in Week 6.  No picks.  Wanna guess why?

You have already seen a pretty good sampling of what to expect---there may be picks or not each week.  If there are picks, the number can vary.  The units can vary and the results can vary.  You may like some of the picks and hate others, but you will find that it is not necessarily the ones you like that end up winning or the ones you hate that end up losing.

Obviously, we are still down a unit at 5-6, but a three unit gain this week nearly pulled us all the way out of the early hole we dug and the future is bright.