The Regular Season is Coming Soon

We are 2 weeks into the newly formatted 3 week preseason, but don’t worry, the real season is still 3 weeks away, as there will be an off week between the end of preseason and the start of the regular season.  So there is still plenty of prep time before the season starts.

What should you be doing to prepare for the start of the season? Let’s start with an easier question, which is  “What should I not be doing?”  You should not be betting on Pre-Season games.  You should not be betting on your own hunches (more on this to follow) when the regular season starts.  Don’t waste good money on bad bets.  Save it for playing the system or save it for in case you decide to play the system next year. 

If you are going to play this year, you need to decide the amount you wish to risk for the entire season and prepare to wager 10% of that bankroll on each game (a unit).  Decide if you are going to play each game for an equal amount and refer to our unweighted results to see how that would have worked out for you over the past 4 years or if you are going to play games that qualify for a double or triple unit for 2 or 3 units, then you should refer to our weighted results.   If you compare the 2 sets of results, you will see that the winning percentage does not deviate much, but the weighted results yielded an extra 3-4 units per season.  You need to have any accounts set up, so you are not scrambling when the first picks come out.  Whatever plan you make—stick to it.

Keep in mind, we will not force selections, so if my machine does not give us a game to play in a particular week, we will not have a selection that week.  For many of you, the idea of a Sunday with no action, or even  a Thursday, Monday or Sunday night with no action does not sit well.  You must resist making a bet just because there is a game on, but if you can’t do that try to at least (a) only bet a small fraction of a system unit on a personal selection (b) join a fantasy league or survivor pool, so that you have some rooting interest in the game that will not significantly eat into your bankroll or winnings.

I’m trying to help you here, but there is only so much I can do.  I can provide you 60% winners and I can do it for free, but I can’t make you play them and I can’t make you not play your own picks; I can only try to convince you otherwise. 

Yesterday, I had an interesting conversation with a new friend, who I know likes to gamble and thought might be interested in the system.  The conversation went like this—

Me: do you like betting on football?

Him:  I used to, but what do I know about hockey?

While this may sound like a non-sequitur to many, it spoke volumes to me.

My friend is clearly a guy who has been around the block enough to be familiar with an old gambling joke, and wise enough to have taken it to heart. 

In its simplest form, the joke involves an amateur gambler who loses on the Thursday night NFL game, goes 3-12 on the 15 college football games he bet on Saturday, 4-8 on Sunday’s NFL games and loses the Monday Night Football game, as well.  On Tuesday, when he goes to settle up with his bookie, the bookie asks if he wants any action that night.  The gambler responds—there’s only Hockey tonight and what do I know about hockey?  Of course the point is that whatever he thought he knew about football, sure as hell didn’t help him win. 

So, back to my friend---he used to bet on football, but was smart enough to realize that over time he was just pissing money away and had the good sense and ability to stop.    Not only that, when I told him I had a system that would make him a winner, he laughed and told me how the giant gleaming hotels in Las Vegas were built with money lost on sure fire gambling systems.  So, here’s the surprising part —— I agree with him completely and believe that my system is perfect for someone who thinks like that, because

1.       He likes to bet on Football.

2.       He knows he can’t win trying to pick games on his own.

3.       He has the self control not to bet when he has no edge.

4.       He is wise enough to initially reject the idea of a system.

So, I encourage him, and anyone who is like minded, to read about The Green Machine and understand that it is completely objective and mechanical and utilizes the unwavering parity against the spread (that the House will make sure continues to exist beyond the 36 years I included in the table of our cornerstone statistic) and then to follow my selections all year, to see if my claims hold water.

Why is the system good for him?  He likes to bet on Football, but is not doing it because he knows he is not good enough at picking winners.  He has the self control to not bet at all, so he can certainly manage to not make side bets outside of the system, if he decides to use it.  He has the good sense to be skeptical, but naturally wants to believe he can enjoy betting and winning.  Giving him a year to follow along and watch us perform, should give the confidence to try it the following year.

Maybe the terms “system” or “machine” provide the wrong impression, but the idea that you need a consistent reproducible approach if you want consistent results, is sound.  The idea of trying to align ourselves with the House, is also sound. Whether you plan to bet or not, you can follow our picks every week either on twitter, instagram or right here on the website where all our tweets will appear in real time, as we WIN ON PRO FOOTBALL.